A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
